Tuesday, December 2, 2014

Watch the Balkans


         Three news stories appeared today, none of them related in their reporting but taken together hint at simmering unrest in a region that a century ago served as the kindling that sparked the First World War.

History doesn’t repeat, but it does haunt. Many of the economic, diplomatic, military and communication structures – not to mention the well-documented history of the war-torn 20th century – did not exist when the Europeans went sleepwalking into World War I, as historian Christopher Clark so compellingly described in his book, “The Sleepwalkers: How Europeans Went to War in 1914.”
 
                Sarajevo following anti-Serb riots in the aftermath
                                 of the archduke's assassination in June 1914.
 
Nonetheless, history shows passion and delusion has conquered reason, and that is no different today. War is often the risk that ambitious political leaders will pursue to secure power – see Syrian President Bashar al-Assad – and corporate leaders will welcome to increase wealth.

Here are excerpts from the three news stories, starting with the Balkan nation of Serbia, which 100 years ago this year Austria-Hungary went to war against after Gavrilo Princip, a Bosnian Serb nationalist, entered the city of Sarajevo in Bosnia-Herzegovina and assassinated Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria. A crisscross of alliances quickly brought the rest of Europe into war.   

               Fears of Serbia return to iron rule of nationalism

Hate speech is on the rise. Anti-Western propaganda fills the airwaves. Liberal journalists are pulled off air. Nationalists talk up redrawing Balkan borders. Mafia-style hits, a hallmark of the Milosevic years, are returning. And as Russia and the West collide over Ukraine, Serbia is falling firmly into the camp of traditional mentor Moscow, even as it tries to advance its case for EU membership.

"Somebody wants to remind us of the 1990s," said government ombudsman Anika Muskinja-Hajnrih. "That is worrisome."

Serbia, whose stability is crucial for peace in the still-volatile Balkans, has been simmering with ethnic and social tensions that exploded after fans brawled during a European Championship qualifying match between Serbia and Albania. The fight, which involved players and fans over an Albanian flag that was flown over the stadium, stirred the most strife in the multi-ethnic north of Serbia where Ballaj is from.

             From Public Radio International:
            American and Russian energy giants battle over a small Romanian town

           Like many areas of Eastern Europea, the rural town of Pungesti is dependent on Russian energy delivered by Gazprom, the oil and gas behemoth based in Moscow. So the town's mayor, Vlasa Mircia, invited Chevron to drill for natural gas in the area, hoping to end Gazprom's monopoly.

But Mircia's idea didn't go as planned: Some of the town's residents staged violent protests, driving both Chevron and Mircia out of town — or did they?

"It depends who you listen to," says New York Times reporter Andrew Higgins.

Protesters say they were fighting back against a big, rapacious multinational. But Romanian officials, including the country's prime minister, accuse Gazprom of orchestrating the protests.

Those officials believe the Russian government, which is the majority owner of Gazprom, is trying to keep Romania in line and in Moscow's pocket. It's also concerned about Romania's smaller and poorer neighbor, Moldova, which is considering closer ties with the European Union.

There's also simple bad blood: Romanians have a long history of tension with Russia, especially under Communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu.

           Fromthe Washington Post:
           As oil prices plunge, wide-ranging effects for consumers and the global economy

The 40 percent drop in the price of the international benchmark Brent-grade crude oil over the past five months will reduce annual revenue to oil producers worldwide by a whopping $1.5 trillion.

“Those losses are staggering,” Edward Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, wrote to investors Monday.

The losers include Russia, where the value of the ruble has been crumbling, inflation has crept up to more than an 8 percent rate and oil prices have done more to hurt the economy than Western sanctions.

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